Έξι βασικά μηνύματα του Climate Change Congress Synthesis Report


Σήμερα κυκλοφόρησε η τελική αναφορά από το συνέδριο “Climate Change – Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions” που έλαβε μέρος στην Κοπεγχάγη το Μάρτιο του 2009. Παραθέτω παρακάτω ολόκληρο το Executive Summary στα Αγγλικά (ελπίζω να βρω και λίγο χρόνο για μια μετάφραση στα Ελληνικά τις επόμενες μέρεςI wish!).

Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, are influencing the climate in ways that threaten the well-being and continued development of human society. If humanity is to learn from history and to limit these threats, the time has come for stronger control of the human activities that are changing the fundamental conditions for life on Earth.

To decide on effective control measures, an understanding of how human activities are changing the climate, and of the implications of unchecked climate change, needs to be widespread among world and national leaders, as well as in the public. The purpose of this report is to provide, for a broad range of audiences, an update of the newest understanding of climate change caused by human activities, the social and environmental implications of this change, and the options available for society to respond to the challenges posed by climate change.

This understanding is communicated through six key messages:

Key Message 1:
Climatic Trends

Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.

Key Message 2:
Social and environmental disruption

The research community provides much information to support discussions on “dangerous climate change”. Recent observations show that societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2oC will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond.

Key Message 3:
Long-term strategy : Global Targets and Timetables

Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid “dangerous climate change” regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious impacts, including the crossing of tipping points, and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult and costly. Setting a credible long-term price for carbon and the adoption of policies that promote energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies are central to effective mitigation.

Key Message 4:
Equity Dimensions

Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human societies and the natural world. An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of coping with climate change impacts, and equitable mitigation strategies are needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable. Tackling climate change should be seen as integral to the broader goals of enhancing socioeconomic development and equity throughout the world.

Key Message 5:
Inaction is inexcusable

Society already has many tools and approaches – economic, technological, behavioural, and managerial – to deal effectively with the climate change challenge. If these tools are not vigorously and widely implemented, adaptation to the unavoidable climate change and the societal transformation required to decarbonise economies will not be achieved. A wide range of benefits will flow from a concerted effort to achieve effective and rapid adaptation and mitigation. These include job growth in the sustainable energy sector; reductions in the health, social, economic and environmental costs of climate change; and the repair of ecosystems and revitalisation of ecosystem services.

Key Message 6:
Meting the Challenge

If the societal transformation required to meet the climate change challenge is to be achieved, then a number of significant constraints must be overcome and critical opportunities seized. These include
reducing inertia in social and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; reducing activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions and reduce resilience (e.g. subsidies); and enabling the shifts from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society. Linking climate change with broader sustainable consumption and production concerns, human rights issues and democratic values is crucial for shifting societies towards more sustainable development pathways.

Ολόκληρη την αναφορά μπορείτε να την βρείτε εδώ. Εμπεριέχει καταπληκτικά γραφήματα (αλλά όχι πάντα και πολύ ρεαλιστικά – δείτε για παράδειγμα το γράφημα στην σελίδα 35)



4 σχόλια


1
Από: tassos

methinks we are fucked.

Και μόνο το travesty του νόμου για την ενέργεια και το κλίμα είναι αρκετό να δείξει πού πάμε.

Και για επαναφέρω το cap-and-trade vs. tax debate… με 85% των credits να μοιράζονται δωρεάν είμαι σίγουρος ότι θα είναι πολύ αποδοτικό, NOT.

4 July, 2009 στις 6:16 pm
2
Από: maikwl

Τasso, συμφωνώ. Κρίνω και εγώ το νέο bill λίγο για την κατάσταση στην οποία βρισκόμαστε – αλλά βλέπεις και πόσες δυσκολίες κρύβει η ψήφιση κάποιου λάιτ σχεδίου (προς θεού, να πληρώνει ο Αμερικάνος 4 δολλάρια το γαλόνι βενζίνης;!). Για αυτό έχουν αρχίσει και εστιάζουν πολλοί για την πιθανή προσαρμογή μας σε ένα κόσμο με “4 βαθμούς κελσίου και παραπέρα” (<a href=”http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/index.php”).

6 July, 2009 στις 11:45 am
3
Από: ares

As ksekinisoume me largely free allowances kai meta blepoume. To 8ema einai na ginei kati. Para8etw nea tou komissariou:

Copenhagen will fail without finance: Dimas
Published: 07 Jul 2009 11:38 AM CET Last updated: 07 Jul 2009 12:04 PM CET
EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas has urged climate negotiators to agree on financing.

He said global efforts to forge a new climate change pact in Copenhagen in December would not succeed without firm commitments to fund climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.

Speaking at Humboldt University in Berlin on Monday, Dimas said the 27-nation bloc was “ready to finance performance-based actions that will be duly monitored, reported and verified”.

However, he declined to specify an amount the EU would be willing to pay to help developing countries adopt climate change measures.

Still, he called on international negotiators not to postpone action because of the global economic slowdown.

“We cannot put climate change on hold and wait for the good times to return,” Dimas said, noting that a global agreement to pay one per cent of GDP now to fight climate change will save up to 20 per cent of economic growth in the longer term.

Convergence

The European commissioner said there was growing convergence by governments on the need to keep the global temperature increase below 2 degrees celsius, a level regarded by scientists as needed to avoid runaway climate change.

Also, governments appeared ready to commit to halving emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050.

“I believe that time has come for some political momentum to be injected into these (climate change) negotiations, a positive signal from our leaders that convergence is growing and that we are all still on board for an ambitious and comprehensive agreement to be reached at this end of this year,” Dimas said.

He said the forthcoming G8 and Major economies Forum meetings in Italy should “help bring that convergence and momentum”.

2020 goal needed

However, Dimas said more commitments were needed from industrialised nations to cut emissions in the mid-term, such as a target for 2020.

The EU has committed to cutting its emissions by 20 per cent below 1990 levels by the end of the next decade.

Yet, developing countries have called on industrialised countries to cut their emissions by at least 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.

“Success will come when we accept our respective responsibilities and the reality of each others’ needs. We must agree to major cuts, which must be matched by a willingness to cooperate with emerging economies and to seriously address adaptation,” Dimas said.

He expressed confidence that developed countries will produce more ambitious pledges as the deadline to Copenhagen nears.

“That will come when a clearer picture of the commitments to be made by developing countries begins to emerge,” he added.

8 July, 2009 στις 4:40 pm
4
Από: ares

who said that UN ain’t cool? 🙂

http://maps.unfccc.int/di/map/

http://cdm.unfccc.int/about/multimedia/podcasts/index.html

16 July, 2009 στις 2:47 pm

Σχολιάστε